Hou Regains 2nd Place with Gou Candidacy
China Times, August 31, 2023
According to the latest polling results published by the My Formosa e-newsletter on August 31st, the support rate for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate William Lai, in a four-way race, has fallen over the past days from over 40 percent to 35.3 percent. Nevertheless, he still retains the first place. Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih, on the other hand, has moved up to second place, with a support rate of 17.8 percent. Support for Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je has dropped to 17.1 percent, making Ko fall to third place. Meanwhile, Terry Gou, founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn) who recently announced his candidacy, ranks last with a support rate of 11.6 percent.
Chairman Wu Tzu-chia of My Formosa e-newsletter announced the above-mentioned rolling poll results on the political talk show "Crucial Moments" on August 31. The survey was conducted from August 28 to 30, covering the three consecutive days following the announcement of Gou’s candidacy on August 28. Mr. Wu emphasized that the poll results provide a complete reflection of the situation after Gou’s announcement.
When further compared to previous polls, in a four-way race, the My Formosa e-newsletter’s latest poll results show the following changes:
Lai Ching-te's support dropped from 36 to 35.3 percent;
Hou Yu-ih's support decreased from 18.3 to 17.8 percent;
Ko Wen-je's support fell from 19.1 to 17.1 percent; and
Terry Gou's support increased from 9.7 to 11.6 percent.
On the other hand, in a three-way race setting, when compared to the previous polling conducted on August 25, 28, and 29, the fluctuation in support is as follows:
Lai Ching-te's support dropped from 36.3 to 35.9 percent;
Ko Wen-je's support decreased from 21.9 to 20.2 percent; and
Hou Yu-ih's support increased from 18.7 to 19.2 percent.
Mr. Wu further pointed out that regardless we observe the polls in a three-way or four-way race, Gou's candidacy doesn't seem to have a significant impact on Lai. The continuous decline in Lai's support can be attributed to the lethargic nature of the election campaign as a whole and the perception that Lai lacks the campaigning momentum needed to maintain support above 40 percent.
However, Mr. Wu also noted that in the four-way race, while Gou's candidacy hasn't significantly affected Lai, it has caused a decline in the support rates for both Hou and Ko. Gou has maintained a stable support rate of about 11 percent. When we add up the support for Hou, Ko, and Gou in a four-way race, it totals 46.5 percent, which is 11.2 percentage points higher than Lai's support. In a three-way race, when we add the support for Hou and Ko together, it totals 39.4 percent, which is only 3.5 percentage points higher than Lai's support. This suggests that Gou's candidacy has a more substantial impact on the overall dynamics of the race in the four-way scenario.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20230831006151-260407